Port Authority of New York and New Jersey Climate Risk Assessment DAP Calculation Methodology (Port Authority NY NJ, 2024)

The Port Authority’s Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) is a cyclical, engineering-based program designed to identify and mitigate current and future climate-related risks to critical assets across air, land, rail and sea facilities. The approach begins with a detailed definition of baseline conditions, capturing the current operational interdependencies of assets and the climate hazards that already affect the region, such as sea level rise, storm surge, intense precipitation, and extreme heat. This foundational step includes extensive data collection through standardized procedures, supported by granular asset inventories and facility-level Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). The methodology specifies dependency chains to map how individual components interact across complex systems, allowing teams to understand how single-asset failures cascade into broader operational consequences. Collectively, these baseline datasets are designed to establish the current climate exposure of the Port Authority’s infrastructure and quantify the role each asset plays in facility revenue and regional economic activity.

Building on this baseline, the CRA evaluates how climate-related parameters may change from the present through 2100, using regionally scaled climate projections and engineering-grade hazard models. Site-specific climate futures account for sea level rise, extreme precipitation, storm surge, and rising temperature trends, with multiple climate scenarios used to capture a range of plausible conditions rather than a single deterministic future. Using this forward-looking climate dataset, engineers are to evaluate the likelihood of both direct failure (such as flooding or overheating) and indirect failure (such as disruptions caused by impaired power feeds or dependent systems elsewhere in a facility). For each asset, probability-adjusted KPIs are calculated to represent the operational and financial consequences of inaction, allowing the Authority to screen which assets are most at risk and to prioritize where resilience investments are most urgently needed.

A critical part of the CRA process is the identification and characterization of uncertainties. Because climate projections vary by emissions pathway, modeling method, and regional dynamics, the CRA incorporates multiple scenarios and time horizons to capture uncertainty in hazard intensity, frequency, and timing. Facility-level uncertainties, such as drainage system capacity and limited stormwater infrastructure data, are to be addressed through sensitivity analyses and documented assumptions. By integrating multiple climate datasets, hazard modeling and documented assumptions, the CRA methodology sets out a risk-screening framework that supports long-term capital planning. The CRA also evaluates the cost effectiveness of mitigation measures to help the Port Authority make strategic investments that reduce climate risk, protect essential operations, and maintain resilience in the face of uncertain but intensifying climate futures.