Climate Adaptation

Ports face increasing physical and operational risks from climate change, including more frequent and severe flooding and disruptions, which threaten long-lived infrastructure designed for several decades of operation. Past climate conditions are no longer reliable predictors of future risk, making early and proactive climate-risk assessment and adaptation essential to avoid significant economic losses and impacts on trade and sustainable development.

Ports and waterways around the world are experiencing temperature increases, rising sea levels, and changes in seasonal precipitation, wind and wave conditions. More frequent and severe extreme events such as storms, heatwaves and droughts are also attributable to climate change (PIANC, 2020). Extreme events, cause direct damage, structural failure, downtime and even the closure of waterborne transport assets, cargo handling activities and operational systems.

Climatic hazards are various and changing (IPCC, 2018). Ports are particularly exposed to various climatic hazards, due to their locations along open coasts or in low-lying estuaries and deltas that make them susceptible to the impacts of rising sea levels, storm surges, waves and winds as well as fluvial and pluvial flooding (Izaguirre et al. 2021).

PIANC (2023) provided an overview, by way of review of previous work, of the drivers of climate related change and the potential impacts on maritime transport:

Drivers of Change (Climate-Related);

• Rising air temperature, water (sea surface) temperature and sea level rise (global and relative/local)
• Changes in wind conditions (speed, direction, intensity, storm tracks), wave climate (height, period, direction, extremes), tide and storm surge propagation, ocean circulation (e.g. stratification), coastal and estuarine hydrodynamics, coastal and estuarine morphology (erosion, accretion, sediment transport), precipitation patterns (intensity, frequency, duration), visibility (fog, precipitation, smoke from bushfires, blizzards), icing conditions (sea spray icing, freezing rain.
• Changes in storm intensity and, in some regions, frequency (cyclones, hurricanes)
• Reduction in ice cover (sea ice, river ice, snow)

Potential Impacts on Maritime Navigation and Ports;

• Coastal flooding of port land, terminals and hinterland connections
• More frequent overtopping from tides and storm surges
• Increased erosion, scour and sedimentation, altering bathymetry and channels
• Damage to breakwaters, wharves, piers and coastal defenses
• Increased corrosion and material degradation of marine infrastructure
• Reduced air draft clearance under bridges and structures
• Disruption to port operations, shipping schedules and supply chains
• Increased downtime due to extreme heat, storms, waves or wind
• Reduced workforce productivity and health and safety risks
• Navigation challenges from high winds, waves, currents and reduced visibility

Of the numerous drivers of change, those Asariotis et al. (2024) identify as growing significantly for many global ports include extreme sea levels, waves and extreme heat events. Rising mean sea levels and more frequent extreme sea levels can cause permanent or recurrent port inundation, coastal flooding, navigational constraints, and increasing insurance costs (Hanson and Nicholls 2012; Izaguirre et al. 2021). Particularly severe impacts are projected for northwestern Europe, northwestern North America, southeastern Asia, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), where population and economic assets are concentrated along coastlines (Vousdoukas et al. 2018; Monioudi et al. 2018). Recurrent flooding events can damage terminals, storage areas, cargo, and vessels, and disrupt port operations and global supply chains for extended periods (UNECE 2013).

Extreme waves and winds further threaten port infrastructure and operations by increasing breakwater overtopping and scour, quay flooding, in-port wave agitation, channel silting, and constraints on vessel access, berthing, and crane operations (Rossouw and Theron 2012; Camus et al. 2019; Folkman et al. 2021). Rising temperatures and more frequent heatwaves degrade pavements, induce rail-track buckling and bridge damage, raise cooling energy demand, and pose health and safety risks to port workers (UNECE 2015; Monioudi et al. 2018).

Changes in precipitation patterns increase the risk of pluvial and fluvial flooding, disrupting ports and their hinterland connections, while droughts can restrict navigation on IWWs, as demonstrated by the 2023 Panama Canal disruption (UNECE 2020; Moreno 2023).

The economic consequences are already substantial, with global annual storm damage to ports estimated at around US$3 billion (a scaled model estimate) and about US$81 billion of trade at risk each year from climate-related port disruptions (EDF 2022; Verschuur et al. 2023b). Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) with no protection or adaptation, assets exposed to coastal flooding by 2100 could be equivalent to 12 to 20% of global GDP (Kirezci et al. 2020).

Further, rising temperatures driven by climate change affect ports through both physical and operational impacts. Extreme heat accelerates the deterioration of pavements, rails, cranes and other infrastructure, increasing maintenance costs and reducing asset lifespan. Heat can also stress electrical, communications and fuel systems, increasing the risk of failures.

Operationally, high temperatures can reduce workforce productivity and trigger heat-related safety stoppages, disrupting cargo handling and stevedoring activities. Heatwaves may also increase cooling demand and energy costs, while indirectly intensifying other risks such as bushfires and power outages. Together, these impacts can reduce port efficiency, reliability and resilience over time.

Climate change impacts are particularly important for ports in South-East Asia because the region combines high physical exposure, intense economic reliance on ports, and rapid infrastructure development. Many major ports are located in low-lying coastal and deltaic environments, making them highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, storm surge and coastal flooding. Even modest sea-level rise can exceed existing design thresholds, leading to chronic inundation, operational downtime and asset damage (Hanson and Nicholls, 2012; Vousdoukas et al., 2018).

Ports in the region are also exposed to multiple coincident climate hazards, including stronger tropical cyclones, extreme rainfall, heatwaves and changing wave conditions. These hazards often interact, increasing the likelihood of disruptive compound events such as flooding during storms or heatrelated equipment and labor constraints (Monioudi et al., 2018; Camus et al., 2019).

South-East Asian economies are highly trade-dependent, with a small number of ports handling large shares of national and regional freight. As a result, climate-related port disruptions can trigger significant economic losses and global supply-chain effects (UNECE, 2013; Verschuur et al., 2023a). With ports designed for service lives of 50-75 years, failing to integrate climate change into planning risks long-term maladaptation and stranded infrastructure, making climate resilience a critical development and investment priority (Asariotis et al., 2024; PIANC, 2020).

Without timely and effective preparation, climate change will result in increasing incidences of damage or structural failures; lead to downtime, disruption and operational delays; and impact on the safety of personnel, equipment and the environment. Port and waterway operators need to act urgently to strengthen resilience and adapt critical assets, operations and systems (PIANC, 2020).

For ports it is imperative to be able to be resilient to ensure a free flow of goods and be able to play its role in wider prosperity and therefore there is a need to be able to bounce back to a good state after getting hit by an event. Failure to adequately consider climate risks may lead to shortcomings in technical and financial performance, safety aspects, and environmental functions. Project owners, financial institutions, governments and private developers need to adequately consider climate risks in development and operations. For port operators, climate change is also a key business risk. Failure to adequately consider the changing climate may have significant consequences.

The potential risks of failing to take action to strengthen resilience: damage to infrastructure and/or disruption to port operations can incur significant costs, impacting not only the port itself, but national and regional supply chains. A failure to properly consider climate change may result in stranded assets or may have wider unintended consequences for health and safety, society or the environment. Furthermore, demonstrating climate resilience may be a pre-requisite for access to finance or insurance.

Supportive policy and legal frameworks play a critical role in enabling effective climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction (DRR). Policies set objectives and direction, while legal instruments create binding obligations, promote accountability, ensure access to data, and establish a level playing field for resilience action. International, regional, national and EU-level frameworks have recently been strengthened to integrate climate adaptation more systematically into planning, infrastructure development and governance. Key global instruments include:

• -the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
• -the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
• -the UNFCCC
• -the Paris Agreement, all of which emphasize resilience, risk reduction and cooperation.

Within the EU, adaptation has been significantly reinforced through strategies, directives and newly binding regulations, notably the European Climate Law (Asariotis et al., 2024), flood-risk, environmental assessment and critical-infrastructure resilience legislation, and climate-proofing guidance for infrastructure projects. Requirements apply depending on the jurisdiction, project and funding conditions. Together, these measures strengthen requirements for climate-risk assessment and adaptation for ports, offering a coherent model that may inform approaches in other regions, despite ongoing implementation challenges.

There is a growing need to consider not just the planning, but the assessment of risk. Where significant investment in new infrastructure with a design life of decades is involved, a more comprehensive approach, particularly to stress testing for climate-resilience, will often be needed.

PIANC (2020) introduces a stepwise process to climate change adaptation planning in ports. The four stages in this process are summarized below. These four stages can be followed in their entirety or a particular stage can be used as a standalone reference for the topic in question. The stage proposed by PIANC (2020), developed into practices here, are:

• Stage 1 facilitates understanding of the assets, operations and systems that could be affected by climate change; highlights possible interdependencies with other sectors that are also susceptible; encourages engagement with internal and external stakeholders; and enables the setting of climate change adaptation objectives. It also stresses the need for data collection and its effective management.
• Stage 2 identifies the type of information needed to determine baseline conditions and to explore possible future changes in relevant climate-related parameters and processes. It also introduces the use of climate change scenarios to assist in understanding the range of possible future changes, and highlights the importance of monitoring and collecting local data.
• Stage 3 describes how the vulnerability of waterborne transport infrastructure assets, operations and systems can be assessed and, where appropriate, a more detailed risk analysis undertaken to understand the likelihood and potential consequences of the projected changes.
• Stage 4 introduces some of the concepts that need to be considered when deciding how best to address climate risks and hazards. It also presents a ‘portfolio’ of potential measures (structural, operational and institutional), and provides guidance on how to screen and evaluate options that might be included on an adaptation pathway.

Key improvements needed in DMCs include stronger policy frameworks mandating climate risk assessments, better climate data availability, and integration of resilience into master planning and investment decisions. Uptake of international standards (e.g. ISO 14091, British Standard 8631, 2021) and structured methodologies such as PIANC’s staged adaptation process (PIANC, 2020) remains inconsistent and should be accelerated. In addition, financing mechanisms and technical capacity must be strengthened to convert risk assessments into bankable resilience projects.

However, practices in DMCs still lag leading global ports, particularly in Europe and North America, where climate adaptation is embedded in regulation, financing and long-term planning (e.g., Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, the European Climate Law, establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality). Closing this gap will require coordinated policy reform, regional knowledge sharing, and enhanced collaboration to mainstream leading practice and avoid maladaptation in rapidly expanding port systems.