Port of London Climate Change Adaptation, how risk increases (or stays the same) with future climate change scenarios (Port of London Authority, 2024)

The Port of London, managed by the Port of London Authority (PLA), provides a comprehensive example of how climate adaptation planning is underpinned by structured vulnerability assessment and detailed risk analysis. As the UK’s largest port by trade volume, handling 51.6 million tonnes of goods in 2023 and supporting extensive passenger and recreational activity, the port represents a highly exposed and economically critical coastal-estuarine system.

Climate change projections for the tidal Thames, based on UKCP18 data, indicate sea level rise by 2050 of 0.22 to 0.27 m under RCP4.5 and 0.26 to 0.31 m under RCP8.5 (30th to 70th percentile) (Port of London Authority, 2024, Table 1), alongside increasing temperatures, more intense rainfall, and rising flood frequency. These hazards contribute to a complex risk environment where compound and interacting climate drivers amplify impacts, particularly in a densely urbanized river corridor.

The PLA adopts a risk-based vulnerability framework, defining risk as the product of likelihood and impact. Vulnerability is assessed across economic, safety, and environmental dimensions, capturing both direct physical exposure (e.g., infrastructure and river systems) and functional sensitivity (e.g., navigation, operations, and ecosystem health).

A total of 19 climate-related risks were identified through qualitative assessment, with hazards including extreme storms, river floods, heavy precipitation, drought, temperature extremes, and sea level rise. Present-day risk levels are predominantly moderate. By mid-century, the number of major risks rises from one at present to seven under RCP4.5 and thirteen under RCP8.5 (Port of London Authority, 2024). These are assessment results, not observed losses.

The report also considers interdependent risks, recognizing that the port operates within a wider system of infrastructure networks. Disruptions to energy supply, transport systems, digital networks, and global supply chain can create cascading failures, amplifying direct climate impacts.

The report cites PortWatch model estimates of about 2.8 days a year of port downtime at present, rising to 7.1 days a year under RCP8.5 (Port of London Authority, 2024, Table 7). These are model estimates, not observed losses.

Overall, the Port of London case study demonstrates how structured vulnerability assessment combined with detailed risk analysis can inform climate adaptation in complex coastal systems. By integrating climate projections, multi-hazard analysis, and system interdependencies, the PLA assessment provides an example of risk-informed planning, infrastructure resilience, and adaptive management in the face of increasing climate uncertainty.